By Trevor Hass
The first four days of March Madness are without question
the best days of the year. You literally sit in front of your TV all day and
watch dozens of games that matter. You become a maniac as you watch your
bracket combust.
Those days are unbeatable. But this day, as a devoted
basketball fan, is probably right behind it. Today is special, because it’s the
beginning of something wonderful. The first day of the NBA season means
basketball is officially back.
There’s no more watching Colts-Titans, Colts-Jaguars or
Colts-Texans on Thursday night (thank goodness). You don’t have to anymore. You
can flip to TNT, get lost in the action and end up staying up much later than
you should watching West powerhouses battle late into the night.
I’m excited for the NBA every year, but this year I’m
particularly intrigued. The Celtics, Wolves and Warriors are the three teams I
follow most closely, and all have varying levels of expectations to shatter,
meet or fall short of.
Yes, the NBA is largely predictable when it comes to which
teams will make the Finals. We’re inevitably on a winding path to a
Cavaliers-Warriors rematch, and that’s OK. There’s no need to complain. That
would be like complaining that a really good movie is too predictable when the
protagonists end up together, even though the plot leading up to the climax was
dope. What makes the NBA entertaining is that new storylines constantly
manifest and teams take different paths to get to their final destinations.
There are several questions left to be unanswered. Will the
Nets win more than 10 games? (Yes). Who will win the MVP? (LeBron James). Will
Russell Westbrook average a triple-double? (No, but he might come close). How
many wins will the Warriors finish with? (66).
Here are several predictions. Most of them will be wrong,
but probably one or two will be right. I’ll be sure to point those ones out in May
or June.
Standings:
East:
1)
Cavaliers (56-26)
2)
Raptors (54-28)
3)
Celtics (53-29)
4)
Pacers (49-33)
5)
Hornets (47-35)
6)
Bulls (45-37)
7)
Hawks (43-39)
8)
Pistons (41-41)
9)
Knicks (39-43)
10) Magic
(39-43)
11) Wizards
(36-46)
12) Bucks
(35-47)
13) Heat
(35-47)
14) 76ers
(22-60)
15) Nets
(16-66)
West:
1)
Warriors (66-16)
2)
Spurs (61-21)
3)
Clippers (57-25)
4)
Blazers (51-31)
5)
Grizzlies (47-35)
6)
Mavericks (46-36)
7)
Jazz (44-38)
8)
Rockets (42-40)
9)
Wolves (40-42)
10) Thunder
(40-42)
11) Nuggets
(36-46)
12) Pelicans
(35-47)
13) Lakers
(27-55)
14) Kings
(26-56)
15) Suns (21-61)
Playoffs:
Cavs over Pistons in 5
Raptors over Hawks in 5
Celtics over Bulls in 6
Pacers over Hornets in 6
Cavs over Pacers in 6
Celtics over Raptors in 7
Cavs over Celtics in 6
Warriors over Rockets in 4
Spurs over Jazz in 5
Clippers over Mavs in 6
Blazers over Grizzlies in 7
Warriors over Blazers in 5
Clippers over Spurs in 7
Warriors over Clippers in 6
Warriors over Cavs in 6
Finals MVP: Steph Curry (25.7 points, 6.8 assists, 4.2 rebounds)
It’s really tough to pick against Steph, Klay, Draymond
and…oh yeah, the best scorer on the planet. I do think the Warriors will win it
all, assuming they stay mostly healthy, which leads to the next section:
predictions for specific teams.
Warriors: This is like a star-studded Backyard Sports team,
the Looney Tunes in the second half of Space Jam and last year’s version of the
Warriors plus a really good basketball player all fused into one. I think
they’ll wisely take it a little easier in the regular season and rest their
starters the final few games, which could help quite a bit against the Blazers,
Spurs and Cavs, if that’s how it unfolds. They’re obviously the team to beat,
and I say they do it.
Celtics: The Celtics didn’t get that marquee free agent
(see: Warriors), but they got the next best thing in Al Horford. Horford is the
quintessential second or third best player on a championship team. He’s never
been in that role before, but he’d fit it perfectly. He’s like a 2011 Lexus. He
does everything well, he’s reliable and he gets the job done. He’s not a
Maserati, but there’s nothing wrong with a Lexus. Once you get that Lexus, maybe
your next car can be a Maserati.
I think Horford will help the Celtics get 5-10 more wins,
and I’d be really surprised if they don’t win a playoff series. Isaiah Thomas,
Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder and Marcus Smart are all one year better. Terry
Rozier’s improved dramatically over the offseason and is poised for a breakout
season. All of the pieces have come together really well, and Danny Ainge has
done a great job making them the second or third best team in the East. Beating
Cleveland will be nearly impossible, but the Celtics should take some serious
strides while being extremely fun to watch in the process.
Wolves: Whether you’re mingling at a Jewish mixer, shopping
at Trader Joe’s or talking to a friend by the lake, you can’t avoid the
question: Will the Wolves make the playoffs? It’s a natural question, and it’s
totally reasonable, but unfortunately I have to provide a disappointing answer.
I lived in Minnesota this past year and the optimism around the Wolves is truly
impressive. I think they’ll be close to the 8 seed this year, but I don’t think
they’ll quite get it.
Karl-Anthony Towns is, without question, the best young
player in the NBA. In the NBA GM survey, 48.3 percent deemed him the player
around whom they’d most like to start a franchise. That’s pretty much all you
need to know. Towns is unstoppable, and I expect he’ll take a massive leap this
year. Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn and the rest of the pieces are
very solid, but I think the West is just slightly too deep for them to make it
this year, though I expect it’ll be close. Next year, the Wolves are just about
a lock.
Bulls: The Bulls are really intriguing to me. If they stay
healthy and everything comes together, I could see them getting the 4 or 5 seed
and winning a series. If not, it could be a disaster. A Rajon Rondo, Dwyane,
Jimmy Butler, Doug McDermott and Robin Lopez lineup puts a lot of pressure on
the legend himself, Dougie Buckets, to shoot a high volume. Rondo is at his
best with shooters around him, and it will be interesting to see whether Wade
and Butler adapt their games to meet his needs or vice versa. I think the Bulls
will make the playoffs, but I’m not confident about that prediction.
Knicks: First of all, Kristaps Porzingis is a beast. No
doubt about it. I’m really impressed the Knicks took him when everyone else in
the world thought it was an awful pick. Props. Expectations are high in New
York, but I’m not sure they’ll be met. Carmelo Anthony’s scoring has never been
in question, but his ability to lead winning teams always has, and I’d expect
it will be scrutinized again this year. Courtney Lee and Joakim Noah are solid
role players, but for me the Knicks are an “I’ll believe it when I see it”
type-deal.
Spurs: They’ll be really good.
Thunder: Russell Westbrook is basically thought of as a
superhero these days. Seriously, though. People expect him to average a
triple-double. He did for a stretch without Durant, but doing so for a whole
season is essentially impossible. However, I do think he’ll average close to
26, 8 assists and 7 boards, which isn’t too shabby.
With Durant gone, I think a lot of the scoring load will
have to go to Victor Oladipo and Enes Kanter. I think they’re capable, but I’m
not sure exactly how capable. The Thunder will be one of the NBA’s most
entertaining teams. I may be in the minority by putting them out of the
playoffs, but I think there are too many more reliable teams in the West that
will finish ahead of them.
Some of the awards:
MVP:
1)
LeBron James
2)
Steph Curry
3)
Russell Westbrook
4)
James Harden
5)
Kevin Durant
Rookie of the Year:
1)
Jamal Murray
2)
Ben Simmons
3)
Kris Dunn
4)
Joel Embiid
5)
Denzel Valentine
Most Improved Player:
1)
Karl-Anthony Towns
2)
Kristaps Porzingis
3)
Justise Winslow
4)
Terry Rozier
5)
Julius Randle
Sixth Man:
1)
Jamal Crawford
2)
Marcus Smart
3)
Andre Iguodala
4)
Al Jefferson
5)
Brandon Knight
All-NBA teams:
1st team:
G Steph Curry
G Russell Westbrook
F Kevin Durant
F LeBron James
C Karl-Anthony Towns
2nd team:
G Chris Paul
G Kyrie Irving
F Kawhi Leonard
F Draymond Green
C DaMarcus Cousins
3rd team:
G Damian Lillard
G Klay Thompson
F Paul George
F LaMarcus Alrdridge
F/C Anthony Davis
Scoring leaders:
1)
James Harden (29.6)
2)
LeBron James (27.4)
3)
Kevin Durant (27.2)
4)
Steph Curry (26.8)
5)
Russell Westbrook (26.0)
6)
Damian Lillard (25.9)
7)
DaMarcus Cousins (24.8)
8)
Karl-Anthony Towns (23.1)
9)
Anthony Davis (22.8)
10) Kawhi
Leonard (22.5)
Assist leaders:
1)
Chris Paul (10.6)
2)
Rajon Rondo (10.2)
3)
John Wall (9.6)
4)
Ricky Rubio (9.5)
5)
Kyle Lowry (8.5)
6)
Russell Westbrook (8.2)
7)
Draymond Green (7.6)
8)
Steph Curry (7.4)
9)
Isaiah Thomas (7.1)
10) Deron
Williams (6.8)
Rebound leaders:
1)
Andre Drummond (13.8)
2)
DeAndre Jordan (12.9)
3)
DeMarcus Cousins (12.7)
4)
Dwight Howard (11.6)
5)
Anthony Davis (11.2)
6)
Karl-Anthony Towns (11.1)
7)
Rudy Gobert (10.5)
8)
Nikola Vucevic (10.4)
9)
LaMarcus Aldridge (10.2)
10) Tristan
Thompson (9.9)
Most intriguing matchups:
1)
Cavs vs. Warriors
2)
Thunder vs. Warriors
3)
Spurs vs. Warriors
4)
Cavs vs. Celtics
5)
Cavs vs. Spurs
Over/under:
-
Number of triple-doubles for Westbrook – 18 –
Under (16)
-
Number of games Derrick Rose plays – 54 – under
(hope I’m wrong)
-
Points per game the Warriors average – 115 –
over
-
Number of starting lineups the Nets use – 17 –
over
-
Points per game Joel Embiid averages – 12 – over
-
Number of games until people start asking
whether this Warriors team is the best team ever – 3 – under
Final thoughts:
I hope you’re all as excited as I am. Chances are you’re
not, but that’s OK, too. Basketball is back, baby. Enjoy it, and remember to
laugh at me in May and June when these predictions are comically off.
