Friday, October 6, 2017

Celtics preview: A breakdown of why I believe this team will ultimately be successful

By Trevor Hass

*** Flaming hot take: Kyrie Irving will have a miserable year, Brad Stevens will get visibly flustered every game and the Celtics will miss the playoffs. ***

All right, now that I have your attention, here are my thoughts on the Celtics this upcoming season. Obviously, none of those things are going to happen. Kyrie may view the world as flat, but his game is anything but. I’m pretty sure Brad could watch The Exorcist and just calmly stare at the TV. The Celtics will easily make the playoffs.

In fact, I think they’re going to be quite good. Some people are predicting a clear path to the Finals. I don’t envision that happening. See: LeBron James. However, others expect some turbulence in the early stages and long-term underachieving, and I don’t think that’s going to happen, either.

The thing I like about this team on paper is that it really is a well-constructed roster, top to bottom. I think when you look at star-studded teams in the past, the ones that often flourish have three stars with specific, different roles and a deep, balanced supporting cast.

For example, I think the reason the Heat were so good with LeBron, Wade and Bosh is because they all had unique games that blended well together. Talent is obviously imperative in the NBA, but the teams that are masterfully put together are generally the ones that thrive when it matters most.

I think Kyrie, Hayward and Horford are a perfect trio. Kyrie’s a wizard with the ball and can get into the lane just about every time. Then he has Hayward and Horford, either cutting or on the wings for uncontested 3s.

With LeBron, Irving was a beast, but he was often the second-best player on the floor and was overshadowed. This is the chance he’s wanted, and I think it’s going to bring out the best in him. Hayward can score at all three levels, and Horford does just about everything well.

Next comes the supporting cast, and you have to start with Marcus Smart. In the first preseason game, it was almost like he was playing Pop-A-Shot, or he had to shoot to save mankind. I have no problem at all with Smart taking in-rhythm 3s, but he needs to remember that he doesn’t have to hoist. Overall, though, he’s trimmed down and looks as feisty as ever.

One important thing about this team is that it genuinely has more offensive firepower than last year’s group. I think once everything gets going, shots are going to come really easily to role players. Last year’s team often had to work hard to manufacture shots. This year’s group will have to grind out some games, sure, but it will win many others on talent alone.

Take Aron Baynes, for example. Wait, what? Aron Baynes and talent in the same sentence? No, no, it’s true! He’s actually really good. In the preseason win over the Hornets, Baynes finished 5 for 8 with 10 points and five rebounds in 18 minutes. I wasn’t totally sold on him as a starter at first, but now I think I’m warming up to the idea.

He doesn’t really make mistakes, and he and Horford are very solid passers and defenders at the 4 and 5 who could grow to complement each other well. Baynes showed a much smoother touch than I had remembered. He consistently hits 8-to-12 footers and is enough of an offensive threat where you can’t forget about him. I think he’s going to surprise some people.

Next up is Jaylen Brown, who should have a breakout second season. A lot of people were down on the pick early last year, but he quickly proved the doubters wrong. Brown’s at his best when he’s attacking and finishing at the rim. The shot will come, because the stroke is there. I like having him in the starting lineup over Smart, personally.

Marcus Morris, who officially joined the team this week, could start on most teams. He may even end up starting for the Celtics, but that remains to be seen. He’s a polished mid-range shooter and will provide some intensity along with Smart and Terry Rozier. Morris is tough, versatile and can guard multiple positions, so he should be a major asset.

OK, so Jayson Tatum’s preseason debut won’t be shown in his Hall of Fame highlights. Big whoop. I’ve been high on Tatum since well before the Celtics drafted him, and I’m still high on him. It was easy to see he was overly energized Monday night. I don’t think he was nervous, necessarily, but he seemed so excited to finally be playing that a lot of his shots went long. He was thinking about what to do instead of just doing it, which is often the cardinal sin in basketball.

The thing that impressed me most, though, was his defense and rebounding. His offense is going to improve as he gets more comfortable, but his long arms and instincts will help him earn minutes right away. Fans need to be patient, because he’s oozing with potential. There’s going to be one game early this year where he drops 20 and his teammates go crazy on the bench. He’s 19 years old. 19! Give it some time, people.

This is a key year for Rozier, whether it’s to earn his long-term spot with the Celtics or to audition for another team. He’s explosive, a pest and his plus-minus is usually remarkably high. He’s a perfect eighth or ninth man on a playoff team, and a nice complement to Smart off the bench.

Next up is Daniel Theis, aka the greatest basketball player that ever lived. No, but seriously, like Baynes, he’s really good. He kind of reminds me of Mason Plumlee – an athletic big who rolls well, finishes at the rim and knows how to pass out of the double. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get some minutes.

On the other guys: Shane Larkin’s electric with the ball in his hands. Guerschon Yabusele reminds me of Leon Powe. He has some work to do, but the potential’s there. Semi Ojeleye’s a little small to be a 4 and a little big to be a 3, but in Brad’s quasi-position-less system I suppose that’s a matter of semantics. Abdel Nader, who toasted everyone in the G League, is a quality scorer. Jabari Bird has a tough name to live up to, but he’s a solid wing.

One particular stat to keep an eye on this year is rebounding. The Celtics were 27th in rebounding last year (not ideal). On Monday (yes, it’s one preseason game), they outrebounded the Hornets 52-45, including 13-7 on the offensive glass.

I do think this team is better equipped to rebound. Last year, Isaiah, as spectacular as he was, really was a liability on the boards. This year’s lineup (Kyrie at 6’3, Jaylen at 6’7, Hayward at 6’8, Horford at 6’10 and Baynes at 6’10/260) has size all around. If you ask me, that’s pretty far from a coincidence.

One thing that stands out to me about the potential of this team is that it should have the ability to win against teams that play a fast, up-tempo style or ones that slow it down. Brad wants them to run, which makes sense, but I don’t think they’ll have any problem winning ugly games, too.

I think Cleveland’s the favorite right now. You just really can’t bet against LeBron considering his track record, and the Cavs are just silly loaded. However, I do think this Celtics team is better-equipped to give them a run than last year’s team was.

That’s really all that matters, right? Anything can happen, but I’d be surprised if the Eastern Conference Finals isn’t a rematch of last year’s one-sided affair. And holy smokes, what a series it could be. So many storylines and fascinating matchups. Isaiah on Kyrie, LeBron on Hayward and Kevin Love on Horford? What else could you want?

But we’ll have to wait a while before that happens. For now, let’s enjoy the preseason and regular season. There’s a whole lot to be intrigued about with this team, and now it’s time to see how it all comes together.

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